We tend to think danger lives in failure. But in a recent edition of his newsletter, Rony Meisler, founder of Reserva, argues the opposite: the most treacherous risk shows up when you succeed. Because you become so convinced of what works that you stop paying attention to what’s changing around you.
The mechanism — subtler than it looks
It goes like this: you discover something that works — a strategy that took off, a skill that opened doors. Your brain says “repeat.” You repeat, it works again, you invest time, build a habit, get better and better at it. So far, great. The problem is what you stop doing as you specialize: you stop testing new things, stop challenging yourself, stop listening to the signals. After all, why touch what’s working? And then the world changes — slowly, slowly, then suddenly, brutally.
Exploration vs. exploitation: James March’s research
Researcher James G. March spent decades studying how people and companies learn and decide, and showed we live in a permanent conflict between two forces. The first: getting better and better at what already works — it pays now, it’s predictable, it covers the bills. The second: going after what might work tomorrow — uncertain, costly, slow, and paying off only later, if at all.
The catch is that the short term pays faster. So every system — company, person, career — naturally drifts toward specializing in what already works and stops renewing itself. March sums up the result chillingly: it turns the most talented people and the most successful companies into machines perfectly tuned for a world that no longer exists.
Fast at what no longer matters
The image Rony’s piece uses nails it: it’s like getting excellent at typing with two fingers. Faster and faster with those two fingers. Except everyone switched to voice and AI — and you keep typing, faster, in a world that no longer waits for typing speed. That’s how admired brands and brilliant executives fell behind: not for lack of talent or money, but from too much commitment to what once worked all too well.
The perfect disguise
The most dangerous part is that this trap disguises itself as intelligence. You don’t stop exploring out of laziness — you stop because it’s working, and everything around you confirms you’re right. That’s why, as Rony says, the most vulnerable person isn’t the one struggling: it’s the one doing very well who stopped asking why. Failure forces you to change; success invites you to stay put.
Which leaves the question: what are you exploring today — new, different, uncertain — that will keep you relevant five years from now?
Why this matters (even more) in the age of AI
In technology, this cycle is brutal and fast: what worked in marketing, support or operations three years ago may already be obsolete. AI accelerated everything. The good news is that exploring got cheaper: you can test an automation, a chatbot, a new channel or a new way of producing at low cost, without stopping what already works. That’s exactly our role — helping your business keep experimenting with the new while it reaps what already works, so you don’t become the perfect machine for a world that’s gone.
Post inspired by an edition of the Email do Rony newsletter, by Rony Meisler (founder of Reserva), drawing on the research of professor James G. March. Worth reading at the source: businessofbrandspost.substack.com.